I don't often share my TA as a Macro trader.
I prefer to keep my thoughts to myself as most traders cannot look past a 1-hour candle. (LOL).
Most of my trades are long-term trades. Yes, I do buy dips and add to them. I have an Alt account that I flip some trades here and there, but I do prefer the bigger trades on longer timeframes.
This is how we traded NEO from $1 — $198
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This is the chart we drew on 01/01/2020.
We have published several times in discord and Facebook.
The quality is not HD, I do apologise. “we are seeing a 6 month to 24 month interval for this to play out”.
BTC is currently in the last green box to the right.
The first green box to the far left was the BTC second halving range — July 9 2016 and the miner’s reward was reduced from 25 bitcoins to 12.5 bitcoins.
As per the illustration “Cryptofy teams predicts $80,000 USD give or take 10% — /+ • -10% = $72,000 • +10% = $88,000
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I thought I would share some TA on the Crypto total market cap, excluding BTC.
At the time of writing this, BTC dominance is sitting around 60%
If BTC starts to break down below 59% > 55% at the end of the coming weeks, we could move closer towards the altcoin rally. BTC still need to fall down below 50% for alts to kick off IMO.
However, if BTC dumps back to low $50K or high $40k, everything will need to reset.
The simplest way to understand this is;
- BTC steady = Altcoins run = Make sure you have some exposure to Altcoins
- BTC runs = Altcoins can idle in dollar value and drop in BTC as people sell Altcoins for BTC = be in BTC
- BTC Drops = The entire market drops, Altcoins will drop harder than BTC = Move into dollars or stable coins.
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This is what I see playing out soon
We can see on the first arc (Bottom left) the market cap was @ $166 Million in September 2014.
The altcoin market cap pushed out of the arc around June 2016 and moved to around $185 million (Second green candle outside the arc top on the right).
We then witnessed a push back down (Red candle) to a $160 ish million market cap to test support before the significant advance up.
The rally started shortly after in early July 2016 and ended in early Jan 2018.
At the back end of Feb 2021, we saw a similar pullback as we did in 2016, and the weekly candle tested the 2018 ATH ($490 Billion), and now the market is looking to make the next advance towards the long-term rally.
When looking at the ATH this chart, do you notice a similar arc pattern for both time frames?
You can see once the market starts to push the old ATH, the acceleration is abrupt. I know history doesn’t always repeat, but it sure does rhyme.
The high was around $490 Billion. Look at the chart above again.
Do you see it, do you see the launchpad. Good!
This is 30X from June 2016 to Jan 2018. 1x = 100%.
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NOW, clear your mind, relax your body, forget about the heavy bags you held through the 2018 bear market, forget about the rug pulls on Uniswap, sit down and munch on some chicken nuggets and embrace my vision my sweet jelly cups.
Vision an Altcoin market that did 5 X from here? Yes BTC may pullback or go for another run. But once BTC decide which direction it wants to take, Alts will get there turn in a big way
Current Marjet cap excluding BTC = $648 Billion.
If we 5x from here that is = $3.2 trillion
Do you have enough exposure to Altcoins?
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Based on this TA, the acceleration up should start soon. Always hard to put a timeframe on anything in this space. If I was to guess, I would say 3 weeks minimum and a max of 6 weeks, give or take a few BTC shakeouts and crypto shenanigans.
I personally believe the altcoin action we have seen in recent times is the entrée.
We are still using our little knives to spread caviar on the premium crackers and fumbling with our small spoons to eat the snails.
Its time to take a sip of champagne, tell the waiter to bring another bottle of Louis Roederer Cristal and prepare for the main course.
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As always, plan accordingly.
“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory.
Tactics without Strategy is the noise before defeat. Those who are victorious plan effectively and change decisively.”
~ SunTzu (The Art of War)
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Written By Kurt Connolly — Co-founder at Cryptofy
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